The spring market showed more life than January, but the numbers still point to a tightening market, not a full recovery. Demand improved. Supply stayed heavy. Pricing power remained fragile.
That combination matters because it separates activity from pricing power. More homes traded. That does not mean sellers regained control.
01
The advisory read
The spring market showed more life than January, but the numbers still point to a tightening market, not a full recovery. Demand improved. Supply stayed heavy. Pricing power remained fragile.
02
What changed from January to March
January opened weak. February improved. March improved again on volume, but not enough to erase the inventory overhang. The quarter tells a simple story: buyers re-engaged faster than prices recovered.
03
Demand improved
Sales rose from 3,082 in January to 5,039 in March. That is a 63.5% gain across the quarter. It tells us buyers were coming back into the market after a very soft start to the year.
04
Supply also stayed heavy
Active listings rose from 17,975 to 21,596 over the same period, an increase of about 20.1%. So while more homes sold, buyers still had a lot of choice. That kept negotiation leverage from swinging fully back to sellers.
05
Absorption improved, but not enough to create broad seller power
SNLR improved from 28.6% in January to 36.1% in February, then eased to 34.9% in March as seasonal listing flow came back. MOI improved from 5.8 to 4.3, which is constructive. But 4.3 months is still not scarce inventory.
06
Why prices are still lagging
The average selling price rose from $973,289 in January to $1,017,796 in March, but that quarter-to-quarter improvement does not mean the market healed.
That is the clearest numerical proof that pricing remained under pressure. The market was stabilizing, not surging.
07
The Bank of Canada backdrop
25% on January 28 and again on March 18, 2026.
That means the spring pickup in housing activity was not driven by fresh rate relief during the quarter.
The market improved under a stable, not newly stimulative, rate environment.
That distinction matters.
The quarter did not improve because policy suddenly turned loose.
08
For sellers
This is a market that still punishes weak launch strategy.
Sellers who overprice, underprepare, or misread early demand signals remain vulnerable because buyers still have alternatives.
Precision matters: pricing, presentation, positioning, and speed of adjustment are doing more of the work than broad market momentum.